Olive oil prices will remain at high levels for at least one more year, while the “rally” of the prices will become clear in the spring of 2024, when there will be the first indications of the production of the new growing season.
As stated – in yesterday’s press conference – by the president of the Association of Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industries (SEVITEL), Konstantinos Koutsioubis: “If nothing changes in terms of demand internationally, especially in the Mediterranean, the trend in prices will remain upward in the coming months. If Spain continues to do as badly (in terms of production) as we estimate it will, then I fear that producer prices will rise. Based on current data, I believe that prices will be on the rise for the next year. If demand stabilizes, maybe prices will also stabilize, but this is not the case for the time being.”
On his part, the vice-president of the Scientific Society of Olive Growing Encyclopedists (4E), Vassilis Zampounis, estimated that “the spring of 2024 is the most critical time as we will have the first clear indications of Spain’s production. More specifically, we will have indications of the next growing season and this will shape the medium-long-term course of prices.” He also estimated that in the short-term the trend will be rather stabilizing.
The production of the new olive growing season 2023/24 in the country, according to the president of the National Interprofessional Olive Oil Organization (EDOE), Manolis Giannoulis, is estimated at 160,000 tons, from 350,000 tons in the 2022/23 season and 160,000 in the 2021/22 season.
According to Giannoulis, the production in the Mediterranean basin, i.e. in the main producing countries, is estimated that in the coming olive growing season will be reduced by about 200,000 tons compared to last year, which will further limit the stocks. Production estimates in Spain are at 700,000 tonnes, up from 660,000 tonnes last year, when under normal conditions Spain has an average production of 1.3 million tons. A small increase, however without being catalytic, is expected in Italy.
Regarding producer prices, they have currently exceeded 9 euros in Italy and 8.50 euros in Spain, while sales remain within the usual range of 82,000 tons per month. In Greece, as Koutsioubis stated, the industry buys at a price of 8.5-8.7 euros from the producers.
Although it is rather difficult to define the “ceiling” in producer price increases, there is already talk in the market of a promising minimum of 9 euros/kg, a development that will once again skyrocket retail price lists.
In the supermarkets, however, the price of olive oil increased by 35% in August, surpassing 13 euros per liter.